Avalonbay Communities Stock Performance

AVB Stock  USD 179.01  1.78  1.00%   
The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.72, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, AvalonBay Communities' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding AvalonBay Communities is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, AvalonBay Communities has a negative expected return of -0.0101%. Please make sure to confirm AvalonBay Communities' sortino ratio, semi variance, and the relationship between the standard deviation and value at risk , to decide if AvalonBay Communities performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days AvalonBay Communities has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. Despite somewhat strong basic indicators, AvalonBay Communities is not utilizing all of its potentials. The recent stock price disturbance, may contribute to short-term losses for the investors. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
1
Five Day Return
0.93
Year To Date Return
(0.81)
Ten Year Return
0.27
All Time Return
757.33
Forward Dividend Yield
0.0398
Payout Ratio
1.4048
Last Split Factor
8:9
Forward Dividend Rate
7.12
Dividend Date
2026-04-15
1
How Recent Shifts in Analyst Sentiment Are Rewriting AvalonBay Communities Investment Story
12/11/2025
 
AvalonBay Communities dividend paid on 31st of December 2025
12/31/2025
2
Insider Trading
01/09/2026
 
AvalonBay Communities dividend paid on 15th of January 2026
01/15/2026
3
A Look At AvalonBay Communities Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness
02/04/2026
4
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. Increases Dividend to 1.78 Per Share
02/05/2026
5
AvalonBay Communities Q4 FFO Loss Challenges Bullish Apartment REIT Narratives
02/06/2026
6
Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc. Raises Position in AvalonBay Communities, Inc. AVB
02/13/2026
7
What AvalonBay Communities s 2025 Results, Capital Returns and 2026 Guidance Update Mean For Shareholders
02/17/2026
8
Acquisition by Keri Shea of 277 shares of AvalonBay Communities subject to Rule 16b-3
02/20/2026
9
First Financial Bankshares Inc Invests 8.85 Million in AvalonBay Communities, Inc. AVB
02/24/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow267.1 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-1.4 B
Free Cash Flow1.4 B

AvalonBay Communities Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  17,941  in AvalonBay Communities on December 2, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (213.00) from holding AvalonBay Communities or give up 1.19% of portfolio value over 90 days. AvalonBay Communities is generating negative expected returns assuming volatility of 1.3595% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. In other words, 12% of stocks are less volatile than AvalonBay, and above 99% of all equities are expected to generate higher returns over the next 90 days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Considering the 90-day investment horizon AvalonBay Communities is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 1.79 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.01 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.07 per unit of volatility.

AvalonBay Communities Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of AvalonBay Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 179.01 90 days 179.01 
about 36.85
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AvalonBay Communities to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 36.85 (This AvalonBay Communities probability density function shows the probability of AvalonBay Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon AvalonBay Communities has a beta of 0.72. This suggests as returns on the market go up, AvalonBay Communities average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding AvalonBay Communities will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally AvalonBay Communities has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   AvalonBay Communities Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for AvalonBay Communities

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AvalonBay Communities. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AvalonBay Communities' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
175.96177.32178.68
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
159.55187.58188.95
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
173.62174.98176.34
Details
24 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
180.25198.07219.86
Details

AvalonBay Communities Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AvalonBay Communities is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AvalonBay Communities' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AvalonBay Communities, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AvalonBay Communities within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.05
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.72
σ
Overall volatility
2.77
Ir
Information ratio -0.05

AvalonBay Communities Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AvalonBay Communities for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AvalonBay Communities can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
AvalonBay Communities generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 15th of January 2026 AvalonBay Communities paid $ 1.75 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: First Financial Bankshares Inc Invests 8.85 Million in AvalonBay Communities, Inc. AVB

AvalonBay Communities Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AvalonBay Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AvalonBay Communities' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AvalonBay Communities' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding142 M
Cash And Short Term Investments187.2 M

AvalonBay Communities Fundamentals Growth

AvalonBay Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of AvalonBay Communities, and AvalonBay Communities fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on AvalonBay Stock performance.

About AvalonBay Communities Performance

By analyzing AvalonBay Communities' fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into AvalonBay Communities' financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if AvalonBay Communities has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if AvalonBay Communities has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Return On Tangible Assets 0.05  0.03 
Return On Capital Employed 0.04  0.06 
Return On Assets 0.05  0.03 
Return On Equity 0.09  0.07 

Things to note about AvalonBay Communities performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about AvalonBay Communities for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for AvalonBay Communities help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
AvalonBay Communities generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 15th of January 2026 AvalonBay Communities paid $ 1.75 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: First Financial Bankshares Inc Invests 8.85 Million in AvalonBay Communities, Inc. AVB
Evaluating AvalonBay Communities' performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate AvalonBay Communities' stock performance include:
  • Analyzing AvalonBay Communities' financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether AvalonBay Communities' stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining AvalonBay Communities' industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating AvalonBay Communities' management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of AvalonBay Communities' management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of AvalonBay Communities' stock. These opinions can provide insight into AvalonBay Communities' potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating AvalonBay Communities' stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact AvalonBay Communities' stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Complementary Tools for AvalonBay Stock analysis

When running AvalonBay Communities' price analysis, check to measure AvalonBay Communities' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AvalonBay Communities is operating at the current time. Most of AvalonBay Communities' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AvalonBay Communities' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AvalonBay Communities' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AvalonBay Communities to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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